Submitted by MichaelJames on June 7, 2008 - 10:30am.
I agree the customer deserves the best information we can give about long term predictions. I describe an approach I've actually seen work (because it's based on empirical measurements) here: http://danube.com/whitepaper/macro-measurements
For a more thorough treatment, I suggest Mike Cohn's book _Agile Estimation and Planning_. ScrumWorks was designed to support these practices, which are becoming standard approaches.
The chaos and unpredictability at the micro level does seem to smooth out at the macro level, kind of how objects move randomly under a microscope but move predictably when we zoom out.
I agree the customer deserves the best information we can give about long term predictions. I describe an approach I've actually seen work (because it's based on empirical measurements) here:
http://danube.com/whitepaper/macro-measurements
For a more thorough treatment, I suggest Mike Cohn's book _Agile Estimation and Planning_. ScrumWorks was designed to support these practices, which are becoming standard approaches.
The chaos and unpredictability at the micro level does seem to smooth out at the macro level, kind of how objects move randomly under a microscope but move predictably when we zoom out.
--mj